Preliminary Results for March 2024
Mar | Feb | Mar | M-M | Y-Y | |
2024 | 2024 | 2023 | Change | Change | |
Index of Consumer Sentiment | 76.5 | 76.9 | 62.0 | -0.5% | +23.4% |
Current Economic Conditions | 79.4 | 79.4 | 66.3 | +0.0% | +19.8% |
Index of Consumer Expectations | 74.6 | 75.2 | 59.2 | -0.8% | +26.0% |
Partisan Perceptions and Expectations (February 23rd, 2024)
Next data release: Thursday, March 28, 2024 for Final March data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment moved little this month with a 0.4 index point decrease that is well within the margin of error, and thus sentiment has been steady and essentially unchanged since January 2024. Sentiment remained almost 25% above November 2023 and is currently halfway between the historic low reached during the peak of inflation in June 2022 and pre-pandemic readings. Small improvements in personal finances were offset by modest declines in expectations for business conditions. After strong gains between November 2023 and January 2024, consumer views have stabilized into a holding pattern; consumers perceived few signals that the economy is currently improving or deteriorating. Indeed, many are withholding judgment about the trajectory of the economy, particularly in the long term, pending the results of this November’s election.
Year-ahead inflation was unchanged from February at 3.0%. For the third straight month, short-run inflation expectations have fallen within the 2.3-3.0% range seen in 2018 and 2019. Long-run inflation expectations remained at 2.9% for the fourth straight month, staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 29 of the last 32 months. Long-run inflation expectations have been modestly elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.
Year-ahead inflation was unchanged from February at 3.0%. For the third straight month, short-run inflation expectations have fallen within the 2.3-3.0% range seen in 2018 and 2019. Long-run inflation expectations remained at 2.9% for the fourth straight month, staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 29 of the last 32 months. Long-run inflation expectations have been modestly elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.