Preliminary Results for July 2017
Jul Jun Jul M-M Y-Y
2017 2017 2016 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 93.1 95.1 90.0 -2.1% +3.4%
Current Economic Conditions 113.2 112.5 109.0 +0.6% +3.9%
Index of Consumer Expectations 80.2 83.9 77.8 -4.4% +3.1%
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Next data release: Friday, July 28, 2017 for Final July data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin
Confidence in future economic prospects continued to slide in early July, with the Expectations Index now 10.1 Index points below its January 2017 peak. In contrast, consumers' assessments of current economic conditions regained the March 2017 peak, the highest level since the July 2005 survey. Overall, the recent data follow the same pattern repeatedly recorded around past cyclical peaks: expectations start to post significant declines while assessments of current economic conditions continue to reach new peaks. To be sure, the data do not suggest an impending recession. Rather, the data indicate that hopes for a prolonged period of 3% GDP growth sparked by Trump's victory have largely vanished, aside from a temporary snap back expected in the 2nd quarter. The declines recorded are now consistent with just above 2% GDP growth in 2017. Much steeper declines in expectations typically precede recessions. The weakness in the Expectations Index in early July was concentrated among Republicans (falling to 108.9 from June’s 116.0 and February’s 120.1); Democrats continue to hold much less favorable expectations, although the Expectations Index among Democrats has markedly improved (to 63.2 from June’s 62.0 in June and 55.5 in February). Overall, the data indicate an annual gain of 2.4% in personal consumption during 2017.