Final Results for June 2016
Jun May Jun M-M Y-Y
2016 2016 2015 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 93.5 94.7 96.1 -1.3% -2.7%
Current Economic Conditions 110.8 109.9 108.9 +0.8% +1.7%
Index of Consumer Expectations 82.4 84.9 87.8 -2.9% -6.2%
Next data release: July 15, 2016 for Preliminary July data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin
Consumers were a bit less optimistic in late June due to rising concerns about prospects for the national economy. While no recession is anticipated, consumers increasingly expect a slower pace of economic growth in the year ahead. Importantly, the persistent strength in personal finances will keep the level of consumer spending at relatively high levels and continue to support an uninterrupted economic expansion. Over the past 18 months, the Sentiment Index has shown only minor fluctuations about a very positive trend, with the June 2016 level a bit higher than the overall average (93.5 vs. 92.6). This relative stability stands in sharp contrast to the much more volatile path of GDP. The stability in the overall Sentiment Index reflects a gradual improvement in assessments of current conditions being offset by a downward drift in the economic prospects. The Current Conditions Index reached in the June survey its highest level since January of 2007, while the Expectations Index declined a modest 9.5% from its January 2015 peak. Although the data are consistent with GDP growth falling slightly below 2.0% in 2016, real consumer spending can be expected to rise by 2.5% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017.