Final Results for July 2016
Jul Jun Jul M-M Y-Y
2016 2016 2015 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 90.0 93.5 93.1 -3.7% -3.3%
Current Economic Conditions 109.0 110.8 107.2 -1.6% +1.7%
Index of Consumer Expectations 77.8 82.4 84.1 -5.6% -7.5%
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Next data release: July 29, 2016 for Final July data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin
Although confidence strengthened in late July, for the month as a whole the Sentiment Index was still below last month's level mainly due to increased concerns about economic prospects among upper income households. The Brexit vote was spontaneously mentioned by record numbers of households with incomes in the top third (23%), more than twice as frequently as among households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds (11%). Given the prompt rebound in stock prices as well as the tiny direct impact on U.S. trade, it is surprising that concerns about Brexit remained nearly as high in late July as immediately following the Brexit vote. While concerns about Brexit are likely to quickly recede, weaker prospects for the economy are likely to remain. Uncertainties surrounding global economic prospects and the presidential election will keep consumers more cautious in their expectations for future economic growth. Based on the strength in personal finances and low interest rates, real consumer spending is now expected to rise by 2.6% through mid 2017.