Final Results for January 2026

Consumer sentiment lifted about 3.5 index points this month, with minor gains seen across all index components. While the overall improvement was small, it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike. However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets. Aside from tariff policy, consumers do not appear to be connecting foreign developments to their views of the economy. Note that interviews for this release concluded on January 19th, two days after Trump’s social media post announcing additional tariffs on eight countries in Europe.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.0% this month. This is the lowest reading since January 2025 but remains well above that month’s 3.3%. Long-run inflation expectations inched up from 3.2% last month to 3.3% this month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020. As seen in the chart, uncertainty over short-run inflation expectations, as measured by the interquartile range of responses, has fallen from mid-2025 but has remained considerably elevated in recent months, comparable to levels seen in 2022; see today’s special report for additional context for long-run inflation expectations.